For decades, the number of people living over the age of 100 has been increasing, reaching about half a million globally.
However, there are much fewer supercentenarians or those who survive to the age of 110 or even beyond. The world’s oldest living person, Jeanne Calment of France, died in 1997 at the age of 122; the current oldest person is 118-year-old Kane Tanaka of Japan.
Probability To Live Past Age Of 110 Is Likely To Increase In This Century
According to a new study from the University of Washington, such extreme longevity will likely continue to grow steadily by the end of this century, with estimations indicating that a lifetime of 125 years, or perhaps 130 years, is feasible.
Individuals are captivated by human extremes, whether it’s flying to the moon, how fast someone can run in the Olympics, or even how long someone can live, according to lead author Michael Pearce, a Ph.D. student in statistics at the University of Washington. They calculate the likelihood that any individual will reach different extreme ages this century using this work.
Longevity has implications for government and economic policies, as well as individuals’ health care and lifestyle choices, making what is likely, or even feasible, significant at all levels of society.
The latest study, published on June 30 in Demographic Research, examines the extremes of human existence using statistical modeling. Experts have discussed the probable limitations to what is known as the highest recorded age at death, given continuous study into aging, the possibility of future medical and scientific breakthroughs, and the very limited number of persons who have verifiably reached the age of 110 or more. While some scientists claim that illness and fundamental cell degradation provide a natural limit to human longevity, others argue that there is no such limit, as shown by record-breaking supercentenarians.
Pearce and Adrian Raftery, a UW sociology and statistics professor, tried a different method. They wanted to know what the world’s longest individual human lifespan may be by the year 2100. Using Bayesian statistics, a prominent method in current statistics, the researchers projected that the world record of 122 years will most likely be broken, with a high probability of at least one individual surviving to between 125 and 132 years.
Raftery and Pearce used the most recent edition of the International Database on Longevity, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, to determine the chance of surviving past 110 – and at what age. This database contains information about supercentenarians from ten European nations, as well as Canada, Japan, and the United States.
The UW team generated estimates for the maximum reported age at death in all 13 nations from 2020 to 2100 using a Bayesian method to assess likelihood.
As things are, supercentenarians are anomalies, and the chances of surpassing the existing age record rise only if the number of supercentenarians climbs considerably. That is not implausible, according to experts, given the world’s ever-increasing population.
People who live to be extremely old are nevertheless rare enough that they constitute a subset of the population, according to Raftery. Even with population increase and advancements in health care, the death rate after a certain age is flattening. In other words, someone who survives to the age of 110 has roughly the same chance of surviving another year as someone who lives to the age of 114, which is around one-half.
Raftery claims that no matter how old people are, once they reach 110, they die at the same pace. They’ve overcome all of the challenges that life throws at them, such as sickness. They die for reasons unrelated to those that harm younger individuals.
This is a very limited group of extremely strong individuals.
The National Institute of Child Health and Human Development supported the research.