Passing charges via the primary six video games of the season
Wilson has been cooking up a stellar season virtually from the beginning and there was some concern Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer would draw back from Wilson’s passing prowess in favor of creating the operating recreation however thus far that hasn’t come to fruition. As a substitute, the Seahawks are passing the ball 58 p.c of the time on first and second down, the best fee for the staff since Wilson’s rookie 12 months in 2012.
Extra passing makes an attempt clearly give Wilson extra alternatives to throw a landing go and leverage his league-high 10 p.c landing fee in 2020. Earlier than this 12 months, Wilson’s greatest fee for a season was 8.2 p.c in 2018. The very best landing fee by a quarterback qualifying for the passer score title since 2002, the primary 12 months the league expanded to 32 groups, was 9.9 p.c by Manning in 2004. Manning posted a landing fee of 8.three p.c throughout his record-setting marketing campaign in 2013, so there’s cause to imagine Wilson can maintain this stage of manufacturing for whole season. Wilson can also be serving to himself by bettering his on-target fee to a league-leading 80 percent this season. It was 69 percent in 2019 and 71 p.c in 2018.
The schedule is favorable to Wilson’s continued success, too. Seattle will get one other likelihood at Arizona who was terrorized by Wilson and Tyler Lockett for 3 landing passes the primary time round. Two of these scores had been in opposition to Cardinals cornerback Dre Fitzpatrick (ranked 116th out of 126 corners per Professional Soccer Focus) and the opposite in opposition to security Budda Baker. Wilson additionally accomplished at the least two passes in opposition to each defender in Arizona’s secondary aside from linebacker Isaiah Simmons, who he solely examined as soon as. Plus, not one of the Cardinals cornerbacks ranked larger than 49th out of 126 certified gamers on the place.
There may be additionally a four-game stretch in opposition to three, um, underperforming groups from the NFC East — Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1), New York Giants (1-6-0) and Washington Soccer Workforce (2-5-0) — plus the winless New York Jets (0-7-0) throughout Weeks 12 via 15. These 5 groups have given up two or extra touchdowns to an opposing quarterback in 20 of 35 video games this season.
There are two video games left in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers (Weeks Eight and 17) however accidents have decimated that go rush, which ought to enable Wilson to work in a clear pocket for a lot of the recreation. Solely Aaron Rodgers (16) has thrown extra landing passes than Wilson (14) from a clear pocket this season, per Professional Soccer Focus, and nobody has a better landing fee than Wilson when not dealing with go stress (12 p.c) in 2020.
This isn’t to say will probably be simple for Wilson to interrupt Manning’s single-season passing landing report however it isn’t far-fetched, both. To estimate Wilson’s projected landing charges in opposition to every of his remaining opponents we’ll regress his efficiency to the imply to regulate for the small pattern measurement of video games performed after which make one other adjustment by evaluating how every protection is relative to the league common. To challenge passing makes an attempt we’ll use every opponent’s passing charges allowed. By this methodology there’s a 32 p.c likelihood he breaks Manning’s report. That features an 11 p.c likelihood he obliterates the report by throwing 60 or extra touchdowns in 2020.